takeoff
In plain wordsThe stretch of time between AI reaching roughly human level and AI becoming vastly superhuman. People argue over whether it would take decades, years, months or just days.
The transition from AI systems of roughly human-level general capability to superintelligencesuperintelligence, n.: A mind, usually imagined as an AI, that would leave even the cleverest people far behind in nearly every kind of thinking, not just in one game or skill. None is known to exist., or more loosely from AI that modestly changes the economy to AI that transforms it. Takeoff speed is the key variable: a fast takeoff leaves little time for humans to notice problems, correct course or coordinate, and favors a single actor gaining a decisive strategic advantagedecisive strategic advantage, n.: A lead in technology and power so large that whoever holds it, whether a country, a company or an AI, could impose its will on the whole world.; a slow takeoff provides warning shots and time to learn from intermediate systems, and tends toward a multipolarmultipolar scenario, n.: A possible future in which many powerful AIs, companies or countries coexist and compete, with none able to dominate the rest. outcome. Nick BostromNick Bostrom, prop. n.: A Swedish philosopher whose 2014 book 'Superintelligence' argued that AI smarter than humans could be catastrophic unless its goals are carefully controlled, and helped make AI risk a mainstream concern. modeled the rate of capability growth as optimization power divided by recalcitrance, the system's resistance to improvement; later work, notably by Paul Christiano and Tom Davidson, frames takeoff in terms of economic output, compute and the fraction of AI research that AI can automate. Related questions include whether takeoff is continuous or has discontinuities, and whether it is local (one project pulls ahead) or global.
Our disagreement isn't about timelines; it's about how fast takeoff is once we get there.
Origin
Earliest use not established. Eliezer Yudkowsky's Creating Friendly AI (2001) contrasts a 'hard takeoff' (weeks or hours to superintelligence) with a 'slow takeoff', and the question was central to the 2008 Hanson–Yudkowsky FOOMFOOM, n.: Slang for a sudden, explosive jump in an AI's abilities, the AI going 'foom' and racing from about human level to vastly superhuman in a very short time. debate. Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence (2014) systematized the kinetics of takeoff; Paul Christiano's 2018 essay 'Takeoff speeds' and Tom Davidson's 2023 compute-centric model gave quantitative definitions.
Usage note
Independent of AI timelinesAI timelines, n.: Forecasts of when AI will reach major milestones, such as matching humans at most work. People with short timelines expect this within years; others expect decades, or never.: AGI could arrive soon and be followed by a gradual takeoff, or arrive late and then accelerate abruptly.
Related
- fast takeofffast takeoff, n.: A scenario in which AI goes from about human level to far beyond it very quickly, in days, weeks or a few months, leaving people little time to react.
- slow takeoffslow takeoff, n.: A scenario in which AI becomes superhuman step by step, over years or decades, as it spreads through the economy, giving society time to spot problems and respond.
- FOOMFOOM, n.: Slang for a sudden, explosive jump in an AI's abilities, the AI going 'foom' and racing from about human level to vastly superhuman in a very short time.
- intelligence explosionintelligence explosion, n.: The idea that once AI gets good enough at improving AI, each smarter version could build a smarter one faster still, so abilities would snowball far beyond human level in a short time.
- AI timelinesAI timelines, n.: Forecasts of when AI will reach major milestones, such as matching humans at most work. People with short timelines expect this within years; others expect decades, or never.
- decisive strategic advantagedecisive strategic advantage, n.: A lead in technology and power so large that whoever holds it, whether a country, a company or an AI, could impose its will on the whole world.
- automated AI researchautomated AI research, n.: Using AI systems to do the work of AI researchers, such as running experiments and writing code for new models, so that AI helps build its own successors.
Sources
- Bostrom, N. (2014). Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, ch. 4. Oxford University Press.
- Christiano, P. (2018). Takeoff speeds. The sideways view (blog).
- Davidson, T. (2023). What a Compute-Centric Framework Says About Takeoff Speeds. Open Philanthropy.
Mentioned in
p(doom)p(doom), n.: Shorthand for someone's personal estimate of the chance that AI leads to catastrophe for humanity, such as extinction. People give it as a percentage, from nearly zero to nearly certain., technological singularitytechnological singularity, n.: A moment some people expect in the future when technology, usually AI smarter than us, starts changing the world so fast and so deeply that we cannot see past it., AI timelinesAI timelines, n.: Forecasts of when AI will reach major milestones, such as matching humans at most work. People with short timelines expect this within years; others expect decades, or never., fast takeofffast takeoff, n.: A scenario in which AI goes from about human level to far beyond it very quickly, in days, weeks or a few months, leaving people little time to react., intelligence explosionintelligence explosion, n.: The idea that once AI gets good enough at improving AI, each smarter version could build a smarter one faster still, so abilities would snowball far beyond human level in a short time., recursive self-improvementrecursive self-improvement, n.: An AI improving its own design or training, so that each improved version is better at making the next improvement. It is the engine usually imagined behind an intelligence explosion., slow takeoffslow takeoff, n.: A scenario in which AI becomes superhuman step by step, over years or decades, as it spreads through the economy, giving society time to spot problems and respond., AI Futures ProjectAI Futures Project, prop. n.: A small nonprofit research group that writes detailed forecasts and scenarios of how advanced AI could develop, best known for the 2025 scenario AI 2027., AI ImpactsAI Impacts, prop. n.: A small research project that studies how and when human-level artificial intelligence might arrive, best known for large surveys asking AI researchers to predict their field's future., compute overhangcompute overhang, n.: A situation in which far more computing power is available than AI currently uses, so that a new method or a decision to scale up could suddenly produce a big jump in ability., decisive strategic advantagedecisive strategic advantage, n.: A lead in technology and power so large that whoever holds it, whether a country, a company or an AI, could impose its will on the whole world., FOOMFOOM, n.: Slang for a sudden, explosive jump in an AI's abilities, the AI going 'foom' and racing from about human level to vastly superhuman in a very short time.