transformative AI
In plain wordsAI that changes the world as deeply as farming or the Industrial Revolution did. It is defined by its effects on society and the economy, not by how humanlike or clever it is.
AI defined by its impact: in Holden Karnofsky's 2016 formulation, AI that 'precipitates a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution'. The definition is deliberately about consequences rather than mechanism: a system need not be general, conscious or humanlike to qualify, and a collection of narrower systems would count if together they, for instance, automated most scientific and technological progress. Researchers operationalize it in several ways: a sustained rise in world economic growth to several times its historical rate (explosive growthexplosive growth, n.: A hypothetical jump in the world economy's growth rate to 30% a year or more, about ten times today's pace, which some economists think AI that replaces human workers could cause.), automation of most remote cognitive work, or what Holden Karnofsky called PASTA, a process for automating scientific and technological advancement. Because it sidesteps arguments over what counts as intelligence, TAI is the usual target variable in quantitative AI timelinesAI timelines, n.: Forecasts of when AI will reach major milestones, such as matching humans at most work. People with short timelines expect this within years; others expect decades, or never. work, including the biological anchorsbiological anchors, n.: A way of forecasting when AI could transform the world, by estimating how much computing it would take to match the human brain and when that much computing would be affordable. report and models by Epoch AIEpoch AI, prop. n.: A research nonprofit that gathers data on how fast AI is advancing — the computing power, data and money behind it — and publishes forecasts and difficult tests for AI.. Ross Gruetzemacher and Jess Whittlestone use three levels: narrowly transformative AI (lasting change within one domain), transformative AI (comparable to general-purpose technologies such as electricity) and radically transformative AI (comparable to the agricultural or industrial revolution), so their TAI is a lower bar than Karnofsky's.
The question for our forecast is not when we get AGI but when we get transformative AI.
Origin
Introduced by Holden Karnofsky as 'our term' in a May 2016 post setting out the Open Philanthropy Project's views on advanced AI, using the agricultural-or-industrial-revolution benchmark. It spread through Ajeya Cotra's 2020 biological anchors report and Karnofsky's 2021 essay series 'The Most Important Century'; Ross Gruetzemacher and Jess Whittlestone proposed a three-level scheme (preprint 2019, published 2022).
Related
- artificial general intelligenceartificial general intelligence, n.: AI that could learn and do almost any mental task a capable adult can, rather than excelling at one narrow job. Experts disagree on the exact bar and on when, or whether, it will arrive.
- biological anchorsbiological anchors, n.: A way of forecasting when AI could transform the world, by estimating how much computing it would take to match the human brain and when that much computing would be affordable.
- AI timelinesAI timelines, n.: Forecasts of when AI will reach major milestones, such as matching humans at most work. People with short timelines expect this within years; others expect decades, or never.
- explosive growthexplosive growth, n.: A hypothetical jump in the world economy's growth rate to 30% a year or more, about ten times today's pace, which some economists think AI that replaces human workers could cause.
- automated AI researchautomated AI research, n.: Using AI systems to do the work of AI researchers, such as running experiments and writing code for new models, so that AI helps build its own successors.
- high-level machine intelligencehigh-level machine intelligence, n.: A yardstick used in surveys of AI researchers: the point at which machines on their own could outdo human workers at every task, in both quality and cost.
- effective altruismeffective altruism, n.: A movement that treats charity like a research problem, comparing causes by how much good each dollar or working hour achieves; many of its members came to rank risks from advanced AI as a top priority.
- artificial general intelligenceartificial general intelligence, n.: AI that could learn and do almost any mental task a capable adult can, rather than excelling at one narrow job. Experts disagree on the exact bar and on when, or whether, it will arrive.
Sources
- Karnofsky, H. (2016). Some Background on Our Views Regarding Advanced Artificial Intelligence. Open Philanthropy Project, 6 May 2016.
- Gruetzemacher, R. & Whittlestone, J. (2022). The transformative potential of artificial intelligence. Futures 135. Preprint arXiv:1912.00747 (2019). arxiv.org/abs/1912.00747
Mentioned in
artificial general intelligenceartificial general intelligence, n.: AI that could learn and do almost any mental task a capable adult can, rather than excelling at one narrow job. Experts disagree on the exact bar and on when, or whether, it will arrive., AI timelinesAI timelines, n.: Forecasts of when AI will reach major milestones, such as matching humans at most work. People with short timelines expect this within years; others expect decades, or never., country of geniuses in a datacentercountry of geniuses in a datacenter, phr.: A phrase for future AI so capable that one data center could hold the equivalent of millions of Nobel-level experts, working faster than people on any problem., Ajeya CotraAjeya Cotra, prop. n.: An American AI researcher and forecaster whose 'biological anchors' report estimated when transformative AI might arrive, and who argued that standard training could produce deceptive AI., biological anchorsbiological anchors, n.: A way of forecasting when AI could transform the world, by estimating how much computing it would take to match the human brain and when that much computing would be affordable., explosive growthexplosive growth, n.: A hypothetical jump in the world economy's growth rate to 30% a year or more, about ten times today's pace, which some economists think AI that replaces human workers could cause., high-level machine intelligencehigh-level machine intelligence, n.: A yardstick used in surveys of AI researchers: the point at which machines on their own could outdo human workers at every task, in both quality and cost., Machines of Loving GraceMachines of Loving Grace, prop. n.: A 2024 essay by Dario Amodei, head of the AI company Anthropic, imagining how very capable AI could pack decades of progress against disease, poverty and bad government into a few years — if its risks are managed., Open PhilanthropyOpen Philanthropy, prop. n.: A large American charitable foundation, renamed Coefficient Giving in 2025, that has been the biggest private funder of research on the risks of advanced AI., windfall clausewindfall clause, n.: A proposed promise by AI companies to give away a large share of any enormous profits they make if their AI transforms the economy, so that the gains are widely shared.